What trends should telcos watch out for in 2026?

Global analysis points to potential shift in focus.

There will be a likely shift in focus amongst telecommunications firms, according to global consultancy Analysys Mason.

Caroline Gabriel, an Analysys Mason partner, reported: "Currently, over 40% of global capex (capital expenditure) on public digital infrastructure – from access and transport networks to data centres, cell sites, and communications satellite infrastructure – comes from telecoms operators, but this will fall to 35% in 2026 and continue to decline.

"Between 2021 and 2031, capex investments in digital infrastructure by telecoms operators and infracos (infrastructure companies) will have fallen from $350b to $259b, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -3%."

She went on to note: "These figures disguise some important changes in investment patterns. Some telecoms operators will refocus on services rather than infrastructure investment.

"Those that continue to build networks and data centres will do so in a very different way: focus will shift from ubiquitous coverage towards localised connectivity; and from access networks towards transport, interconnect, and cloud infrastructure."

In the decade from 2021, telco capex on transport and cloud networks is projected to increase at a CAGR of 5%.

According to Gabriel, the prevailing trends are set to lead to a significant change in telcos' position regarding the build-out and ownership of public infrastructure.

"Some operators will build AI-enabled (artificial intelligence) data centres and contribute to the overall expansion of capabilities," she said in Analysys Mason's 2026 predictions report.

"For instance, Softbank and SK Telecom are making major investments in Asia, whilst Deutsche Telekom and Orange are amongst the European operators co-investing with NVIDIA, as well as being partners in the European AI GigaFactory project."

Analysys Mason predicts that telcos' investment in cloud and AI infrastructure will grow 250% between 2024 and 2030.

Gabriel highlighted, though: "This is a drop in the ocean of total global investment in AI infrastructure, which will be dominated by non-telecoms operators such as hyperscalers.

"To stay relevant in the value chain, most telecoms operators will focus on aspects of AI infrastructure where they have natural strengths, particularly in addressing the AI-driven requirement for more data-centre interconnect."

An expert in network and cloud strategies and architecture, Gabriel cited the decline in traffic growth, pointing out that telcos will have a greater focus on assets they can monetise as they are left with a smaller share of capex or ownership than they have traditionally had.