China’s telco, pay-TV services revenue to grow over 2023-2028

Revenue to hit over $500b amidst strong 5G adoption and fibre subscriptions.

Growing adoption of 5G services and steady growth in fibre broadband subscriptions are set to drive the total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in China at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% from 2023 to 2028.

Data and analytics company GlobalData said the country’s revenue is expected to increase from $468.8b in 2023 to $502.9b in 2028.

In its China Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report, mobile data service revenue will continue to grow due to a persistent rise in mobile internet subscriptions, and the adoption of higher average revenue per user (ARPU) yielding 5G services over the forecast period.

“5G services will go on to account for more than 87% of the total mobile subscriptions in the country by 2028. This growth will be mainly driven by the MIIT’s support for 5G infrastructure development and operators’ 5G network expansion and modernisation initiatives, telecom analyst Sarwat Zeeshan said.”

“For instance, in March 2024, China Mobile announced plans to expand 5G-A to over 300 cities in 2024, with the goal of establishing the world’s largest 5G commercial network,” Zeeshan added.

The report also revealed that mobile voice service revenue in the country will decline over the same period amid bundling of free voice minutes with mobile service plans, increasing use of OTT-based communication apps for voice calling, and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU levels.

In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice revenue will continue to decline as customers switch to mobile and internet-based voice communication services.

Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at a CAGR of 1.5% during the review period, supported by the continued subscription gains in fibre broadband services.

“Growing demand for high-speed broadband connectivity and the focus of the government and operators on fibre-optic network expansion in the country will support the fibre broadband subscriptions’ growth over the forecast period,” Zeeshan said.

According to Zeeshan, China also intends to extend optical fibre network coverage with 1Gbps speed to all townships and counties across the country by 2025.

Meanwhile, pay-TV service segment will see a steady growth in revenue and subscriptions over the forecast period, driven by the growth in IPTV subscriptions and marginal increase in total Pay-TV ARPU.

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