Telcos in China face 'significant decline' in revenues from mobile voice service

Consumers continue to shift towards online communication platforms.

As phone users continue to favour internet-based calling over traditional network calls, the telecommunications sector in China is forecast to take a hit when it comes to its mobile voice service earnings over the next few years.

"GlobalData's China Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline significantly at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 19% between 2024 and 2029, due to the consumer shift towards OTT (over-the-top) communication platforms and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU (average revenue per user)," GlobalData noted.

The data and analytics company said the revenue decrease in the mobile voice segment will offset telcos' earnings from mobile data, leading to a modest 0.5% CAGR for overall telecom and pay-TV services revenue in China during the five-year period.

According to GlobalData, the country's telecom and pay-TV services revenue is forecast to reach $483 billion in 2029.

It stated: "Mobile data service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 5.3% over the [2024-2029] period, due to the continued increase in 5G subscriptions and the subsequent rise in mobile data ARPU. Increasing mobile internet usage enabled by MNOs' (mobile network operators) premium mobile data plans will also drive mobile data revenue growth over the forecast period."

Meanwhile, fixed voice service and fixed broadband service are both expected to see declines in revenue as a result of lower ARPU, losses in circuit-switched subscriptions, and the slower growth in new fixed broadband lines.

Commenting on the numbers, GlobalData Telecom Analyst Sarwat Zeeshan said: "5G subscriptions accounted for 70.2% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2024 and will remain the dominant mobile technology over the forecast period.

"This growth will be driven by the MIIT's (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) support for 5G infrastructure development in the country, the ongoing 5G network expansions by MNOs, and wider availability of affordable 5G plans."

It was highlighted that nearly 4.4 million 5G base stations had already been deployed in China as of the first quarter of 2025, whilst the country's plan to expand its 1,000 Mbps optical fibre network aims to cover all counties and township seats before 2026.