China’s eSIM potential to drive market toward 4.9-billion peak

New research forecast a 300% increase in eSim adoption by 2030.

Global eSIM connections are forecast to sharply grow over the next five years, rising to about 4.9 billion by 2030 from around 1.2 billion in 2025, according to Juniper Research.

This represents roughly a 300% increase in eSIM adoption worldwide.

The surge is largely linked to China’s major mobile operators enabling local subscribers to use embedded SIM technology at scale.

Juniper analysts say China could add around 1.7 billion potential connections to the global eSIM base.

Beyond smartphones, eSIM uptake is also being driven by wearables and Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices, where remote provisioning and multi-profile flexibility reduce reliance on physical SIM cards.

The forecast suggests a shift in how mobile subscriptions are managed, with implications for operators, device makers and roaming services across Asia Pacific, according to Juniper Research.

As eSIM becomes more widespread, mobile network strategies in the region are expected to adapt to digital provisioning and new service models, according to the report.