China faces stagnant growth in fixed communications service revenue

Medium-term outlook influenced by lower levels of average revenue per user.

Overall revenue growth from China's fixed communications services is expected to be stagnant over the next five years.

GlobalData believes lower levels of average revenue per user (ARPU) will likely translate to a sluggish compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7% in the country's total fixed communications services revenue from 2025 ($303b) until 2030 ($314b).

According to the analytics firm's estimates, fixed voice and fixed broadband service lines are set to expand at a CAGR of 1% and 1.5%, respectively. Voice telephony and broadband ARPU levels, meanwhile, are forecast to see a considerable drop.

"Fixed voice ARPU levels in the residential segment is expected to decline from $5.07 to $4.35 between 2025 and 2030 due to the growing popularity of mobile/internet-based communication," GlobalData noted.

"Similarly, broadband ARPU levels are expected to decline from $31.10 to $29.53 in residential segment due to the discounted pricing plans offered by operators."

It went on to cite China Mobile as this year's leader in the fixed broadband services market, followed by China Telecom and China Unicom in terms of subscription share.

GlobalData Telecom Analyst Pradeepthi Kantipudi commented: "Fibre will remain the leading broadband technology in terms of subscription share through the forecast period driven by the government's support for expansion and improvement of fibre network infrastructure in the country.

"As service differentiation increasingly relies on network performance, reliability, and bundled digital services, the operators that pay attention to customer experience whist optimising operational efficiency will lead the next wave of China's fixed broadband growth."