Japan’s telecom, pay-TV revenue to increase to $108b in 2028
Mobile data and broadband segments are expected to play pivotal roles in driving revenue expansion in the country
The telecom and pay-TV landscape in Japan is poised for significant growth over the coming years with revenue projected to climb from $97.6b in 2023 to $108.3b in 2028, analytics firm GlobalData reported.
Based on its latest Japan Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report, GlobalData revealed that total revenue from these services is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1% — key to this are the mobile data and fixed broadband service segments.
The report also showed that mobile data service revenue will continue to increase driven by the continued growth in smartphone and M2M/IoT subscriptions, and the growing adoption of 5G services that yield higher data ARPU.
On the other hand, mobile voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, in line with the steady decline in mobile voice service ARPU, with users increasingly shifting to OTT-based communication apps.
Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, said that while 4G services dominated the mobile subscription market in 2023, their share is expected to decline drastically over the forecast period as consumers migrate towards 5G offerings.
“5G subscriptions will increase at a rapid pace and surpass 4G’s share of subscriptions in 2026, driven by the rising demand and growing availability of 5G services with telcos’ expanding their 5G networks and offering discounted 5G plans. For example, NTT Docomo aims to expand 5G network coverage to 90% of the country’s population by the end of 2024,” Zeeshan explained.
Meanwhile, in the fixed communication services segment, fixed broadband service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.2% over 2023-2028, supported by the steady growth in fibre-optic access lines, and the rising demand for higher speed broadband connectivity and fibre rollouts by operators and the government.
The pay-TV service segment will see a steady decline in subscriptions over the forecast period due to subscription losses in the cable TV and DTH segments as a result of the growing adoption of OTT video alternatives.
According to Zeeshan, the growing demand for high-speed broadband connectivity, the government’s focus on fibre-optic network expansion in the country, and the gradual phasing out of DSL services in the country will support growth in fibre broadband subscriptions over the forecast period.
Japan has also set a target to expand fibre-optic networks to 99.9% of households by the end of 2028, he added.
“NTT Docomo topped mobile, fixed voice, and fixed broadband service segments, by subscriptions in 2023. Its ongoing expansion of the 5G network and focus on M2M/IoT offerings will help the operator maintain its leadership in the mobile services segment. In the fixed broadband segment, its focus on offering varied tariff plans based on data usage will attract customers from entry-level to premium level,” Zeeshan said.
