Smartphone shipments to grow 4% in 2024

This recovery growth is predicted to continue into 2025 after a challenging period for the market.

Global smartphone shipments are forecasted to grow 4% year over year in 2024 to 1.21 billion units amid rebounding consumer demand, market intelligence firm International Data Corporation (IDC) said.

In its latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, IDC reported that this year’s growth signals a recovery in consumer demand after a challenging period for the market.

According to IDC, this upward trend in smartphone shipments is expected to carry on into 2025 with a 2.3% growth, followed by low single-digit growth for the rest of the forecast period, resulting in a five-year compound annual growth rate of 2.3%.

IDC Research Director Nabila Popal noted that majority of the expected “strong growth” will stem from Android sales, growing at a rate of 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iPhone.

“While the overall market will see a relatively strong recovery this year with 4% growth coming from almost all regions, it is important to note that the majority of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster at 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iOS (Apple),” Popal said.

“The rapid growth of Android is coming off a tough two years, while iOS's softer growth is due to a strong 2023 and increasing competition in China that is denting its growth potential,” Popal explained.

The research director added that Apple’s growth could accelerate if the company makes significant advancements in its AI strategy for  iPhones, particularly in China.

“Regardless of how this plays out, the good news is the smartphone market is finally out of the woods with a clear path of recovery ahead,” said Popal.

IDC also pointed out the role of 5G technology in the market’s recovery, adding that 5G smartphones accounted for 16% of growth this year as adoption increases across all markets.

“The 16% growth in 2024 will be followed by another year of double-digit growth in 2025 (+13.2%) as 5G market share will climb to 74.4%, up from 67.2% in 2024,” aid Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's tracker report.

“With 5G saturation in most developed markets, the growth of 5G in emerging markets will play a central role in driving shipments throughout the forecast period,” Scarsella said.

While the overall  smartphone market is projected to have a 2.3% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2028, 5G shipments are expected to achieve a notable 9.1% growth rate during the same period.